Fed Minutes: Most Officials See Another Rate Hike by Year-End — What It Means for Gold and Forex

By Advait, founder of Trade with Advait · 09 Oct 2026

Quick clarification first: the Fed did not hold a new policy meeting this week. What came out on Wednesday 7 October (2:00 pm US Eastern, late evening in India) were the minutes of the 15–16 September meeting. The next actual FOMC decision is on 27–28 October. Minutes matter because they show what officials were thinking behind the headline decision.

What the minutes say

According to the Federal Reserve's published minutes, the Committee raised the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75–4.00%, and the vote was 12–0 with no dissents. A few other points stood out:

• More hikes likely: most participants judged that another increase in the target range would probably be appropriate by the end of the year. They also said they approach every meeting with an open mind, so nothing is locked in.
• Inflation still the worry: PCE inflation was 3.8% over the 12 months to August (core 3.4%). Participants said progress had been insufficient and saw risks to inflation as tilted to the upside, citing energy prices, AI-related demand, and core goods and services prices.
• Jobs steady: the unemployment rate was 4.1% in July and August, and the labour market was described as stable and close to maximum employment.
• Policy not seen as tight by all: several participants described the current rate as not restrictive, or only mildly restrictive.
• Balance sheet: the Fed's trading desk paused reserve management purchases, saying reserves were within an ample range.

The release itself is on the Fed's site: minutes press release, 7 October 2026. Media coverage such as CNBC highlighted the same message: another hike is expected by many officials, but the minutes give no timing.

Why it matters for Gold and the Dollar

In general, expectations of higher US rates tend to support the Dollar and Treasury yields, and that can weigh on Gold because Gold pays no interest. Hawkish central bank signals have often worked that way. But the link is not mechanical: the market usually reacts to how the minutes compare with what it had already priced in, not to the headline alone. We have not covered the intraday price move in this post, so check a live chart for how Gold and the Dollar actually traded around the release.

It also helps to remember that a hike by itself does not decide Gold's direction. If inflation stays high, some traders see Gold as a hedge; if yields rise faster, others see it as a cost. Both views have been argued, and neither is certain.

How a rules-based framework looks at this

With the 8-factor approach we use at Trade with Advait, an event like this is not a reason to guess direction. The questions are more practical: is the trend on Gold and the Dollar Index clear, has volatility (ATR) genuinely expanded, and is price respecting structure? The bigger test is still ahead. The 27–28 October FOMC meeting, along with the inflation and jobs data before it, is where the minutes' “open mind” language gets tested. Wider stops, smaller position size or simply waiting for confirmation are common ways traders handle such weeks.

Nobody can say for sure how the Fed will move next. That is exactly why we lean on pre-defined rules for trend, volatility and risk rather than any single headline.

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Disclaimer: This page is for education only and is not investment advice. Trading Forex and Gold involves a high risk of loss and you can lose more than you expect. Past or backtested performance does not guarantee future results. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Check that any broker or platform is permitted for you under the laws that apply to you.